Today I am looking at the share price prospects of three recent FTSE-quoted fallers.
Out of fashion
Fashion star Ted Baker (LSE: TED) fell out of favour with stock pickers last week, the business’s value declining 5% during Tuesday-Friday. The company’s shares are now dealing at their lowest level since March 2015, but I believe this represents a fresh buying opportunity.
Ted Baker saw revenues surge 18% in the 12 months to January 2016, a result that powered pre-tax profits 20% higher, to £58.7m. The retailer’s strategy of aggressive overseas expansion is clearly working wonders, while a strong internet presence is also driving turnover — e-commerce sales leapt 45.8% in the period.
With further store openings in the offing, the City expects Ted Baker to enjoy earnings advances of 11% and 14% in the periods to January 2017 and 2018 respectively.
Subsequent P/E multiples of 24.9 times for this year and 21.5 times for 2018 may be expensive on paper. But I expect these numbers to keep toppling as global demand for Ted Baker’s togs heads through the roof.
Taking a pounding
Budget retailer Poundland (LSE: PLND) also found itself on the ropes between last Tuesday and Friday, a 9% decline in the period marking a fresh downleg in the firm’s share price. And I believe further weakness can be expected as Poundland battles fierce competitive pressures.
The company advised in January that footfall continued to decline during October-December, prompting the business to warn that pre-tax profits will register at “the lower end of the range of market expectations” of between £39.8m and £45.8m for the current year.
Still, the City expects Poundland to bounce from a 31% earnings slide for the year to March 2016, with rises of 58% and19% chalked in for 2017 and 2018 respectively.
While these figures may create decent P/E ratings of 11.2 times and 9 times respectively. But I believe the prospect of intensifying revenues pressure may prompt severe downgrades to these figures in the near future.
Driller dives
I have long talked down the chances of BP (LSE: BP) staging a sound earnings recovery thanks to the chronic supply imbalance washing over the oil market. Shares in the business fell 3% last week as investor confidence once again came under pressure, and I believe the fossil fuel colossus has much further to fall.
The City expects BP to bounce from losses of 35.39 US cents per share in 2015 to earnings of 17 cents this year. But this still results in a vast P/E rating of 30.6 times. Sure, predicted earnings of 41.8 cents in 2017 may push the multiple to a very-reasonable 12.8 times. But I reckon these bullish estimates could prove disastrously wide of the mark as crude values look set to struggle.
The essential supply cuts needed to mitigate stagnant demand are likely to remain a pipe dream for some time longer thanks to the colossal economic and political considerations of the world’s top producers. And hopes of a long-term recovery at BP are not being done any favours by the firm’s massive budget cuts and asset sales.
