BP Plc: Buy, Sell Or Hold?

One Fool takes a closer look at BP plc (LON:BP).

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

When BP (LSE: BP) published its results last week, the market wasn’t expecting much.  So when the company reported that replacement cost profits — the industry’s preferred measure — in the first quarter slid by 39% to £2.1 billion compared to £3.475 billion in the same period last year following steep falls in the price of crude oil, the market seemed relieved.

This was because the results were ahead of analyst expectations — they had forecast that the oil giant’s profits would be just $1.2bn.  But does this make this oil giant a buy, sell or a hold?

The Case To Buy…

Proponents for the shares believe that analysts have been too pessimistic about the shares – this seems to ring true, as Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) also beat expectations last week, posting earnings excluding exceptional items of $3.2 billion in the first three months of 2015, down 56% on the $7.3 billion made in quarter one last year. The City, however, had been expecting a drop to about $2.5 billion.

The last time that I wrote about the shares on 11 March this year, I said:

“Well, the average price of oil in the final quarter of 2014 was a good 25% higher than the likely average price in the first quarter of 2015.  This makes things difficult to predict going forward for investors and analysts alike.  Personally, I would be waiting to see how the results shape up before making a purchase.  Any nasty surprises could leave you counting the cost.”

As we can see from the chart below, the price of oil has staged a bit of a recovery since the apparent lows seen at the start of this year.  Investors who feel that the price of oil has bottomed and may rise could be getting in at a decent price, especially if a bidder should decide to snap up BP, possibly implying a price above 700 pence should the same 50% premium be given as was the case with Shell’s bid for BG Group.

bp

The Case To Hold…

So what should you do if you already hold the stock?  Personally, I try to glean what I can from the management comments.  Here’s what Bob Dudley said:

“We are resetting and rebalancing BP to meet the challenges of a possible period of sustained lower prices. Our results today reflect both this weaker environment and the actions we are taking in response.”

It seems to me that the management believe that oil, like interest rates, may well stay lower for longer.  Bob Dudley continued:

“We are continuing to progress our planned divestment programme, we are resetting our level of capital spending, and we are addressing costs through focusing on simplification and efficiency throughout BP.”

As I have written before, management have acted to control costs, and although one could argue that this should be an ongoing feature at board meetings, I think that the company will be focusing more than usual on this agenda item, currently.

In addition, shareholders currently receive a quarterly dividend equating to a forecast yield of over 5.5% — try finding a savings account to beat that on the high street!

The Case To Sell…

It is true that the company, along with some of its peers, have beaten expectations this quarter.  However, most of this outperformance has been possible because of the additional focus on the downstream side of the business, coupled with cost reductions in capital expenditure.

I believe that it is unlikely that this will be repeated in the quarters to come.  As such, I believe that investors could be caught off-guard, should the price of oil stay at these prices – there is only so much management can do when the price of the commodity you are producing is depressed.

Finally, looking at the valuation, I see the shares are currently trading on a forward price to earnings ratio of around 17 times earnings and are predicted to yield 5.5% for the year ending December 2015.  My issue here is that I think the shares currently look expensive, when compared to the market median forecast of just over 14 times earnings. Secondly, the dividend is only just covered by earnings — personally, I like to see dividends covered by at least 1.5 times by earnings.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Dave Sullivan has no position in any shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

After it crashed 25%, should I buy this former stock market darling in my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Harvey Jones has a big hole in his Stocks and Shares ISA that he is keen to fill. Should he…

Read more »

happy senior couple using a laptop in their living room to look at their financial budgets
Investing Articles

How’s the dividend forecast looking for Legal & General shares in 2025 and beyond?

As a shareholder, I like to keep track of the potential dividend returns I could make from my Legal &…

Read more »

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Could buying this stock with a $7bn market cap be like investing in Nvidia in 2010?

Where might the next Nvidia-type stock be lurking in today's market? Our writer takes a look at one candidate with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »