Is Now The Right Time To Buy Unilever plc?

Unilever plc (LON:ULVR) is a great long-term stock, but buyers could profit from being patient.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

unilever2Unilever (LSE: ULVR) (NYSE: UL.US) shares have risen by 142% over the last 10 years, but the consumer goods firm’s share price performance has cooled recently, and Unilever’s share price is down by 13% from the all-time high of 2,862p we saw in May 2013.

Does this decline make Unilever a buy, or are the firm’s shares likely to fall further before recovering?

I’ve taken a closer look to find out more.

Should you invest £1,000 in Ashmore right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets. And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Ashmore made the list?

See the 6 stocks

Pricey P/E

Let’s start with the basics: how is Unilever valued against its past earnings, and the market’s expectations of future earnings?

P/E ratio

Current value

P/E using 5-year average adjusted earnings per share

21.4

2-year average forecast P/E

18.2

Source: Company reports, consensus forecasts

Unilever shares haven’t been cheap for a long time, and they still aren’t.

The firm’s underlying growth and free cash flow compensates to this for some extent: Unilever’s dividend has been consistently covered by free cash flow in recent years (unlike most UK supermarkets, for example) and the firm’s 3.6% prospective yield in line with the FTSE 100 average.

However, Unilever’s sales fell last year, and profits are expected to fall this year. Is the Anglo-Dutch firm’s premium price tag still justified?

A closer look

Unilever’s first-half results were encouraging, with emerging market sales up 6.6% and the firm’s core operation margin stable at a very healthy 14%, despite turnover falling by 5.5% due to currency effects.

However, a year is a short time for a large firm like Unilever, and in my view it’s more important to look at the medium-term trends before deciding whether to buy or sell.

I’ve taken a look at some of the firm’s key fundamentals over the last five years:

Metric

5-year compound average growth rate

Sales

+4.6%

Adjusted earnings per  share

+2.6%

Dividend

+6.1%

Book value

+3.3%

Net debt

-2.8%

Source: Company reports

It’s a pretty well-rounded picture, in my view: shareholders have been well rewarded by a rising dividend, while the firm’s net debt has actually fallen by an average of 2.8% per year.

I don’t see anything to be concerned about here. Looking ahead, City analysts expect more of the same: current forecasts suggest both earnings per share and the dividend will rise by around 6% in 2014 and 2015.

Is Unilever a buy?

As a long-term Unilever shareholder, I’d be happy to top up my holding at today’s prices, but I do think that the company’s shares are a little expensive, even given their above-average growth prospects.

Unilever’s share price has fallen by 5% over the last three months — it’s possible that this fall might continue, providing an attractive buying opportunity later this year or early next year. 

Should you buy Ashmore now?

Don’t make any big decisions yet.

Because Mark Rogers — The Motley Fool UK’s Director of Investing — has revealed 5 Shares for the Future of Energy.

And he believes they could bring spectacular returns over the next decade.

Since the war in Ukraine, nations everywhere are scrambling for energy independence, he says. Meanwhile, they’re hellbent on achieving net zero emissions. No guarantees, but history shows...

When such enormous changes hit a big industry, informed investors can potentially get rich.

So, with his new report, Mark’s aiming to put more investors in this enviable position.

Click the button below to find out how you can get your hands on the full report now, and as a thank you for your interest, we’ll send you one of the five picks — absolutely free!

Grab your FREE Energy recommendation now

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Roland Head owns shares in Unilever. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of Unilever. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

2 FTSE 100 shares I’m avoiding like the plague right now

While the FTSE remains packed with opportunity, many of the index's blue-chip shares could be at risk as trade tariffs…

Read more »

Young mixed-race woman jumping for joy in a park with confetti falling around her
Investing Articles

Here’s how an investor could aim for a million buying under 10 shares

Christopher Ruane explains why doing less, not more, of the right things could be the key to success as an…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Could this new risk cause a stock market crash?

Tariffs and a potential recession are two major stock market risks right now. But there’s another risk that concerns Edward…

Read more »

Investing Articles

This 10-stock ISA portfolio could yield £1,380 in passive income a year!

Here's a portfolio of dividend shares that could produce £115 of monthly passive income for investors who maximise their ISA…

Read more »

Bus waiting in front of the London Stock Exchange on a sunny day.
Investing Articles

In the FTSE 100 storm, here’s what I’m doing

In a choppy stock market, this writer has been eyeing some FTSE 100 shares as potential bargains for his portfolio,…

Read more »

Investing Articles

UK shares: an unmissable buying opportunity?

Harvey Jones thinks this is an attractive time to go shopping for UK shares, as many have been caught up…

Read more »

Hand flipping wooden cubes for change wording" Panic " to " Calm".
Investing Articles

3 types of UK stocks that could help protect an investment portfolio in a recession

Edward Sheldon highlights three categories of UK stocks that are defensive in nature and could offer portfolio protection if the…

Read more »

Dividend Shares

An 11% yield? Here’s the dividend forecast for a FTSE 250 powerhouse

Jon Smith outlines one income stock that already has a high yield but explains why the dividend forecast indicates even…

Read more »