Is National Grid plc A Safe Dividend Investment?

Not all dividends are as safe as they seem. What about National Grid plc (LON: NG)?

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nationalgrid1Is anything more attractive in the world of investing than the so-called defensive companies, particularly during uncertain times?

Judging by National Grid’s (LSE: NG) (NYSE: NGG.US) current valuation, it appears not — the firm seems alluring to investors like us, and we’ve driven the share price up by buying into the company.

Where’s the growth?

At today’s share price of 879p the gas and electricity transmission system operator trades on a forward P/E rating of around 15 for year to March 2016 and the dividend yield is down to about 5% . That valuation might not sound too high, but it’s rich compared to the firm’s recent history.

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City forecasters predict an earnings decline of 17% this year followed by a 5% recovery the year after. Where’s the growth to justify National Grid’s higher valuation? The simple answer is that there isn’t any.

If we look at the firm’s trading figures, it seems clear that business is flat:

Year to March

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Net cash from operations (£m)

4,516

4,858

4,228

3,750

4,019

Operating profit (£m)

3293

3745

3539

3749

3735

Recent share price strength seems driven by valuation expansion and little more, so why is that happening?

Uncertain times

If we think of the investing landscape recently there are clues as to why National Grid, with its defensive qualities, has apparently become all the rage. Economic instability is wreaking havoc with whole sectors such as banking and supermarkets. Risk-averse investors will probably look to defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer goods to avoid the volatility.

The valuations of defensive firms like National Grid are on the rise. That strikes me as a situation that raises the stakes and increases the risk for new investors to the likes of National Grid. I’m worried that the valuation of defensive companies may be cyclical and that a lower valuation may be around the corner for National Grid. Perhaps that will happen as economic conditions become more benign and other investment options start to look less risky and, therefore, more appealing.

Competition for cash flow

It’s unwise to over-pay for any company. Even National Grid has its challenges despite its defensive appeal. Operations are capital-intensive, which requires the firm to run a high debt load. On top of that, governments keep the industry under close regularity scrutiny, which often require companies like National Grid to invest huge sums into their operations.

National Grid’s dividend competes with all of those things for the firm’s cash flow. In recent years, the dividend has risen, but with stagnant-looking earnings and cash flow, dividend cover from earnings is slipping. Adjusted forward earnings cover the payout for that 5% forward yield less than 1.3 times. If earnings and cash don’t start to grow dividend progression will need to halt. If that happens, the situation could become a catalyst for valuation compression, which could see investors’ patiently acquired income gains reversed by capital attrition as the share price slips.

What now?

National Grid would look like a safer dividend investment if the yield was higher and the P/E rating, lower. I’m concerned that, at this level, valuation compression could wipe out investor total returns down the road.

Like buying £1 for 31p

This seems ridiculous, but we almost never see shares looking this cheap. Yet this Share Advisor pick has a price/book ratio of 0.31. In plain English, this means that investors effectively get in on a business that holds £1 of assets for every 31p they invest!

Of course, this is the stock market where money is always at risk — these valuations can change and there are no guarantees. But some risks are a LOT more interesting than others, and at The Motley Fool we believe this company is amongst them.

What’s more, it currently boasts a stellar dividend yield of around 10%, and right now it’s possible for investors to jump aboard at near-historic lows. Want to get the name for yourself?

See the full investment case

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Kevin Godbold does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.

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