3 Reasons To Buy Dollar-Based Shares Like HSBC Holdings plc, GlaxoSmithKline plc & Diageo plc Now

HSBC Holdings plc (LON:HSBA), GlaxoSmithKline plc (LON:GSK) and Diageo plc (LON:DGE) will gain from these 3 risks to Sterling

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

city

A plethora of companies have been complaining that their earnings have suffered from the strength of the pound. Sterling rose by over 15% against the dollar in the 12 months to July 2014, though it has pulled back somewhat since. Share prices have been punished.

But that could change, and it could be a good time to stock up on shares whose fortunes are geared to the dollar. I see three particular risks to sterling. In descending order of importance they are:

1. Scottish Independence

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have estimated that the value of sterling could drop by up to 10% if the Scots vote for independence next month. Their analysis is founded on the political and economic uncertainty that would follow, together with vulnerability in the UK’s trade balance.

With the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns running close in the polls, and the unprecedented nature of the Referendum, nobody will know how the vote will go until the results are declared.

2. A Labour Government

With the exception of the Blair years, traditionally Labour administrations have been bad for sterling. The current Labour leadership has criticised the Government’s ‘austerity’ regime, whilst its plans to freeze energy company prices, break-up the big banks and renationalise parts of the rail industry scarcely fall under the heading of ‘business-friendly’.

Opinion polls might give us a steer on the General Election’s outcome, but the very uncertainty is itself likely to exert some downward pressure on the pound.

3. Reversion to the Mean

Sterling has made up roughly half the ground it lost since the crash. Will it carry on and recover its former value, or fall back after two years of strengthening? I have little faith that professional economists have the answer. But I suspect that over time the impact on share prices of sterling’s recent strengthening will diminish, if only when the next reporting round is compared against softer comparatives.

Shares to buy now

HSBC (LSE: HSBA) (NYSE: HSBC.US) is one stock that should benefit from a weaker pound: it declares its dividends in dollars. The stock is largely a play on the global economy, especially Asia-Pacific, but its wide geographic spread, strong capital base and conservative management make it relatively defensive, whilst a 4.6% yield is attractive.

Diageo (LSE: DGE) (NYSE: DEO.US) has an expensive rating due to its strong global brands coupled with exciting emerging-market growth prospects. But the shares are now relatively cheap, down over 11% this year, in part due to currency headwinds, in part due to the economic slowdown in emerging markets. Diageo also produces the tipple-of-choice of bureaucrats in China, where a crackdown on corruption has reduced gift-giving.

GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) has suffered higher-profile fallout from its entanglement with Chinese corruption. But again the longer-term story is positive, with intrinsic value encapsulated in pharmaceutical patents and over-the-counter brands, together with emerging-market growth prospects. Under 6% of its revenues come from the UK, and the shares are 9% cheaper than at the start of the year.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Tony Reading owns shares in HSBC, Diageo and GlaxoSmithKline. The Motley Fool UK has recommended shares in GlaxoSmithKline. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

5 steps to start buying shares with under £500

Learn how this writer would start buying shares with a few hundred pounds in a handful of steps, if he…

Read more »

Young happy white woman loading groceries into the back of her car
Investing Articles

The FTSE 100 offers some great bargains. Is this one?

Our writer digs into one FTSE 100 share that has had a rough 2024 to date, ahead of its interim…

Read more »

Smiling white woman holding iPhone with Airpods in ear
Investing Articles

£9,000 of savings? Here’s my 3-step approach to aim for £1,794 in passive income

Christopher Ruane walks through the practical steps he would take to try and turn £9,000 into a sizeable passive income…

Read more »

Group of young friends toasting each other with beers in a pub
Investing Articles

I’d buy 29,412 shares of this UK dividend stock for £150 a month in passive income

Insiders have been buying this dividend stock, which offers an 8.5% yield. Roland Head explains why he’d choose the shares…

Read more »

Red briefcase with the words Budget HM Treasury embossed in gold
Investing Articles

Could the new UK budget spell growth for these 6 FTSE stocks? I think so!

Mark David Hartley considers six UK stocks that could enjoy growth off the back of new measures announced in the…

Read more »

Investing Articles

With a 6.6% yield, is now the right time to add this income stock to my ISA?

Our writer’s looking to boost his Stocks and Shares ISA. With this in mind, he’s debating whether to buy a…

Read more »

Dividend Shares

This blue-chip FTSE stock just fell 12.5% in a day. Is it time to consider buying?

Smith & Nephew is a well-known, blue-chip FTSE stock with a decent dividend yield. And its share price just dropped…

Read more »

Investing Articles

At 72p, the Vodafone share price looks to be at least 33% undervalued to me

Our writer looks at a number of valuation measures to determine whether the Vodafone share price reflects the fair value…

Read more »