At What Price Would National Grid plc Be A Bargain Buy?

G A Chester explains his bargain-buy price for National Grid plc (LON:NG).

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

ngPatience is one of the key attributes of a successful investor. The likes of US master Warren Buffett have been known to wait years for the right company at the right price.

Now, while buying stocks at a fair price will tend to pay off over the long term, we all love to bag a real bargain.

Today, I’m going to tell you the price that I believe would put National Grid (LSE: NG) (NYSE: NGG.US) in the bargain basement.

Yield for utilities

National Grid runs the UK’s gas pipelines and electricity wires, and also has power operations in the US. As a regulated utility, where investors’ capital is relatively safe and dividends are plentiful, the company fits the bill particularly well for big pension funds and private investors with an income focus.

Because of these characteristics, my preferred valuation measure for utilities is dividend yield.

Current valuation

nationalgrid1

National Grid’s shares are trading at 870p at the time of writing. The trailing 12-month dividend is 42.03p, giving a yield of 4.8%.

On the face of it, this might look a bit of a bargain, because the trailing yield for the FTSE 100 as a whole is 3.5%, and National Grid’s shares are also off their 52-week-high of 896p, achieved as recently as June.

But remember, I’m talking about longer timeframes and patience. And we don’t have to go back too many years to put National Grid’s current yield into a wider-angled perspective.

Historical valuation

The table below gives some share price and yield data over half-year periods going back to 2011.

Period Share price (p)
average
Share price (p)
range
Dividend yield (%)
average
Dividend yield (%)
range
15 May 2014 – 8 Aug 2014 857 831 – 896 4.9 5.1 – 4.7
21 Nov 2013 – 14 May 2014 805 746 – 861 5.1 5.5 – 4.7
16 May 2013 – 20 Nov 2013 762 717 – 847 5.4 5.7 – 4.8
15 Nov 2012 – 15 May 2013 734 682 – 847 5.4 5.8 – 4.7
17 May 2012 – 14 Nov 2012 682 641 – 711 5.8 6.1 – 5.5
17 Nov 2011 – 16 May 2012 636 598 – 683 5.9 6.3 – 5.5
19 May 2011 – 16 Nov 2011 613 569 – 649 5.9 6.3 – 5.6

You can see, then, that National Grid’s current yield of 4.8% is lower than the average of any of the periods. It was a simple matter for investors to bag a 5.9% yield just a few years ago, while daily market-watchers could have got anything up to 6.3%.

National Grid’s high-yield of 2011/12 coincided with uncertainty about the outcome of new regulatory arrangements for the company for the period 2013-21. Impending regulatory reviews often push up the yields of the utilities concerned — indeed, that’s what’s happening right now with Centrica and SSE.

Once the market had clarity on National Grid’s new regulatory regime, the yield began to fall. The particularly low level of the yield at present may be due in part to money flowing into National Grid where regulatory visibility is currently better than at Centrica and SSE.

What price a bargain today?

Clearly, on my preferred valuation measure of yield, National Grid is a long way from being a bargain buy at present.

Today, for the company to yield the table-best average of 5.9%, we’d need to see the shares at 712p — some 18% below the actual price of 870p. However, with National Grid’s regulatory arrangements set to run to 2021, it may be some time before we see a yield of 5.9% again.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

G A Chester has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

Up 26%, can the BT share price really push higher still?

The BT share price has surged on several catalysts in 2024, but there’s evidence to suggest that the stock could…

Read more »

Man writing 'now' having crossed out 'later', 'tomorrow' and 'next week'
Investing Articles

What are the best dividend shares to buy right now?

As shares in B&M European Value Retail have fallen, the dividend yield has reached a 10-year high. Should investors be…

Read more »

Surprised Black girl holding teddy bear toy on Christmas
Investing Articles

My favourite FTSE 100 passive income stock that keeps the Christmas coffers full

The holiday season is expensive and can leave many consumers struggling to make ends meet. Here’s how I use a…

Read more »

Investing Articles

The latest growth forecasts suggest the Glencore share price will hit 555p!

Harvey Jones has been disappointed by the performance of the Glencore share price since he bought the commodity stock last…

Read more »

Dividend Shares

A closer look at the 11% dividend yield forecast for Phoenix Group shares

Phoenix Group shares have one of the highest dividend yields in the FTSE 100 index today. Could this be a…

Read more »

Investing Articles

If I’d put £25,000 into the FTSE 350 at the start of 2024, here’s how much I’d have today!

Many FTSE shares have rebounded this year as interest rates look set to keep heading lower and market appetite for…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Up 40%, but experts forecast the easyJet share price could soon hit 664p! Time to buy?

The easyJet share price has been flying lately and stock analysts are predicting more fun to come. But there's only…

Read more »

Storytelling image of a multiethnic senior couple in love - Elderly married couple dating outdoors, love emotions and feelings
Investing Articles

Worried about tax raids? Here’s how I’m targeting a £44,526 passive income with shares

Investing in a Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) or Individual Savings Account (ISA) can supercharge one's passive income, says Royston Wild.

Read more »