Things are looking bright. Almost daily, economists tell us the ‘great recession’ is over. Britain’s economy is more or less back to its pre-recession peak. Some researchers think the economy will post a 2.9% rise during 2014. Good news abounds — UK Manufacturing output grew by 1.4% in the first quarter of the year, the strongest quarter since 2010; the construction sector is growing, and Britain’s trade deficit fell to £1.3 billion in March.
Confidence returns everywhere. Long-boarded-up retail units are reopening, new tenants restock shelves like mad, Pfizer wants to spend billions on Astrazeneca, and the FTSE 100 is once again knocking on the door of 7000.
Feeling comfortable can be a dangerous place
Whenever the index closed-in on 7000 before it dropped back, and that could happen again. Tea-leaf studiers like me point to anecdotal warnings such as the potential Pfizer deal, wagging a finger and saying things like,”look what happened after Royal Bank of Scotland bought ABN Ambro.” Big corporate deals can coincide with market tops.
Further down the stock-index food chain, shares crash daily on any missed financial targets, perhaps signalling fragility in the long bull run we’ve experienced. It won’t take much to incite another FTSE 100 plummet — how about out-and-out war in Ukraine, for example?
Feeling uncomfortable can present opportunity
If shares fall, where will I look for value? How about the fastest growing and often priciest companies in the FTSE 100? Market weakness presents opportunities to pick up some of the best-performing companies at more reasonable valuations. Here are three FTSE 100 growers I’m watching closely:
Industry services
Testing, inspection and certification specialist Intertek Group (LSE: ITRK), provides its customer-companies with a wide range of services centered around safety, regulatory, quality and performance standards. The firm’s track record on growth is impressive:
Year to December | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (£m) | 1,237 | 1,374 | 1,749 | 2,054 | 2,184 |
Net cash from operations (£m) | 203 | 194 | 213 | 234 | 269 |
Adjusted earnings per share | 83p | 91p | 109.1p | 133.1p | 140.2p |
Progress looks well-rounded, with top and bottom line expansion supported by rising cash flow.
Intertek delivers its services worldwide to a diverse range of industries and expands both organically and by targeted acquisition. We’ll get an update around 4 August when the firm releases it interims.
At today’s 3,044p share price, the forward P/E rating is running at almost 19, with city analysts expecting earnings to grow by 10% in 2015.
Power system engineering
Iconic British manufacturer Rolls-Royce Holdings (LSE: RR) (NASDAQOTH: RYCEY.US) is probably best-known these days for producing engines for the world’s biggest airliners and advanced military aircraft. Yet the firm also makes low-emission power systems for ships, critical equipment and safety systems for the nuclear industry, and power systems for offshore platforms and major pipelines for the oil and gas industry.
Although there is some cyclicality in the industries the firm serves, good trading progress, driven by quality engineering, keeps the company moving forward:
Year to December | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (£m) | 10,414 | 11,085 | 11,124 | 12,161 | 15,513 |
Net cash from operations (£m) | 859 | 1,340 | 1,306 | 1,255 | 2,040 |
Adjusted earnings per share | 39.67p | 38.73p | 48.54p | 59.59p | 65.59p |
At a share price of 1,003p, the forward P/E rating is sitting at just under 15 for 2015, with forecasters expecting 10% earnings’ growth that year. Rolls-Royce will resease interim results around 31 July.
Electronic chip design
Leading semiconductor manufacturers incorporate ARM Holdings’ (LSE: ARM) (NASDAQ: ARMH.US) chip designs alongside their own technology to create energy-efficient chips suitable for smart phones and other electronic devices.
The firm’s seemingly well-defended economic position, at the centre of the fast-moving semi-conductor industry, produces stunning financial results:
Year to December | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (£m) | 305 | 407 | 492 | 577 | 715 |
Net cash from operations (£m) | 97 | 176 | 194 | 261 | 315 |
Adjusted earnings per share | 5.45p | 9.34p | 12.72p | 14.93p | 20.88p |
Demand seems to be increasing with the rise of inter-device connectivity. City analysts expect earnings to grow 24% in 2015 and, at a share price of 901p, the forward P/E rating is running at about 31.