Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc: Ugly Duckling Looks Tasty To Me

Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (LON: RBS) may look like an ugly duckling today but Harvey Jones says that one day it will turn into a beautiful swan.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

RBS

Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS) (NYSE: RBS.US) has been called a lot of nasty things in recent years, and rightly so. Liberum Capital’s recent description of the troubled bank as an “ugly duckling” looks relatively mild, especially given recent foul play.

The latest shock is the £3.1 billion provision for mis-selling and litigation costs, announced just before markets closed on Monday evening. Losses for 2013 now look set to total £8 billion, including up to £4.5 billion from the creation of its new bad bank. Ugly is the word.

The losses has knocked the RBS core tier 1 capital ratio from 9.1% at the end of September to between 8.1% and 8.5% today. Markets hated the news, but I’m already over it. The timing of the announcement came as a surprise, but the news isn’t really surprising. I knew RBS was an ugly duckling when I bought it. 

RBS has retained its A credit rating, despite the recent shock. Chief executive Ross McEwan is still aiming for 11% core tier ratio by the end of next year. The share price is steady today. Liberum’s prediction that RBS “has the potential to be highly profitable and low risk by 2017” still holds good for me. It rates the bank a ‘Buy’ with a target price of 445p, almost 30% above today’s 332p.

I never expected a quick or smooth transformation in the fortunes of RBS. It will take time to find its rightful place in the world, like the ugly duckling it is. It doesn’t help that Labour leader Ed Miliband has been taking cheap political potshots at it, threatening to impose limits on market share (with reckless disregard for the RBS share price, and the value of the taxpayer’s 81% stake). 

Scottish independence adds another layer of uncertainty, given that RBS threatened to decamp its headquarters to London if the Nationalists secure a Yes vote in September. Its decrepit IT systems require major investment, as does its branch network. And investors like me don’t even get a dividend as reward for their patience. 

But the sale of its US business Citizens will raise £1.8 billion, which can be repatriated to the UK and used to boost personal and business lending. The toxic assets have mostly been burned off. Earnings per share are forecast to hit a daffy 15% in 2015. By then, the dividend will be back, albeit on a lowly forecast yield of 1.1%. One day, the ugly duckling will become a beautiful swan.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

> Harvey owns shares in RBS.

More on Investing Articles

Midnight is celebrated along the River Thames in London with a spectacular and colourful firework display.
Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in Greatland Gold (GGP) shares at the start of 2025 is now worth…

Greatland Gold (GGP) shares have caught the eye thanks to their dazzling recent performance. Harvey Jones wonders if this is…

Read more »

Calendar showing the date of 5th April on desk in a house
Investing Articles

As the Stocks and Shares ISA deadline looms, here are 3 things to consider

Ahead of the annual Stocks and Shares ISA contribution deadline just weeks from now, our writer shares a trio of…

Read more »

Investing Articles

If a 45-year-old puts £700 a month into a SIPP, here’s what they could have by retirement

Even when starting in middle age, consistently contributing to a SIPP can lead to a substantial fund to call upon…

Read more »

Arrow symbol glowing amid black arrow symbols on black background.
Investing Articles

Defence stocks are soaring! Here’s why they could be better shares to buy than the ‘Magnificent Seven’

European defence stocks have rocketed in value since 2020. Here's why they could continue outperforming the 'Magnificent Seven.'

Read more »

Investing Articles

32% below their net asset value, shares in this REIT are on my passive income radar

With an 8.5% dividend yield, shares in a real estate investment trust are firmly on Stephen Wright’s radar from a…

Read more »

Portrait of elderly man wearing white denim shirt and glasses looking up with hand on chin. Thoughtful senior entrepreneur, studio shot against grey background.
Investing Articles

An incredible buying opportunity? This US stock keeps smashing expectations

This US stock's experienced a short sell-off, like many of its peers. However, it appears unwarranted, especially when we consider…

Read more »

The flag of the United States of America flying in front of the Capitol building
Investing Articles

The Nasdaq Composite is in correction territory. 2 stocks to consider buying on the dip

Looking for stocks to buy to take advantage of the recent market drop? Our writer highlights a pair of top…

Read more »

Smiling family of four enjoying breakfast at sunrise while camping
Investing Articles

How much would an investor need in an ISA to earn a £7,000 yearly passive income?

Ben McPoland explores what it would take for a Stocks and Shares ISA portfolio to throw off seven grand a…

Read more »