There's a change of mood afoot amongst the punditocracy about the Bank of England's next base rate move.

Earlier this year, concerns about inflation meant that many thought another rise was on the cards this year, but now worries about recession have triggered thoughts of a rate cut.

Yesterday's column by David Smith in the 'Sunday Times' is a good example.

Smith accepts that inflation is still an issue but argues that if policy makers switched their primary monetary target to 'money GDP', they could get round the inflation problem and cut the base rate soon. What's more, he doesn't think that a rate cut will necessarily be a problem for the pound. He reckons that a rate cut, by reducing the chances of a serious economic slump, might even boost the pound against the dollar and other currencies.

For what it's worth, my hunch is that the Bank will follow the middle way and leave rates unchanged at 5% for the rest of 2008. But Smith's article is well worth reading if you're looking for reasons why a cut might come sooner. Edited at 2008-09-02 18:26:58